Beneficial Electrification and Winter Peak May 11 2020
New York's transition to beneficial electrification is taking hold and changing energy growth rate projections. Each year the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), the independent body that operates New York’s electric grid, publishes its Load & Capacity Data Gold Book, which projects energy usage and trends.
This year's Gold Book has begun integrating significant beneficial electrification in its projections! In the Overview it reports:
The energy growth rate over the thirty years in the 2020 baseline forecast is higher than the rate published in the 2019 Gold Book. The higher forecast growth in energy usage can be attributed in part to the increasing impact of electric vehicle usage and other electrification especially in the later years…Much of these impacts are due to New York State's energy policies and programs, including the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act ("CLCPA").
According to the Gold Book (see the diagram below) "baseline" equals expected, and it projects a transition from a NY statewide summer peak to a winter peak around 2039.
Bob Wyman has produced charts from this data that show the impact of different projected electrification scenarios in each of the 11 NYISO zones across the State. Because geothermal heat pumps are very efficient during peak demand periods, this technology will be a key tool in addressing these projected peaks and getting them under control.